NSW Report Suggests Rise in Violent Offending, After Decades of Decline

The latest report from the New South Wales Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research (BOCSAR)  provides an overview of the crime trends reported by the NSW Police Computerised Operational Policing System, and is helpful in gaining an insight into the state’s landscape in terms of the commission of criminal offences.

Published in December 2024, the report delves into trends in recorded crime, regional comparisons, legal proceedings, policing activity, and statistical area maps in across the state. 

Overview of Trends in New South Wales 

The overview of trends in New South Wales suggests an increase in violent offences from January 2020 to January 2024, including a 3% annual increase in assault offences, 8.2% risee in sexual assault and 2.9% in other sexual offences – although there is research to suggest the latter correspond with an increase in reporting rather than a spike in offending. The rate of violent crimes significantly increased from January 2022 to January 2024 from 85 incidents per 100,000 persons to nearly 100 incidents. 

The increases, of course, take into account the periods of Covid-19 lockdowns – which saw tensions rise, especially within households – and follow decades of decreases in violent crime rates.

There has also been an increase in reports of property crimes, showing an increase of 105 incidents per 100,000 persons to 120 incidents between January 2022 to January 2024, which follows a significant fall from January 2001 until January 2022. These offences include break and enters of dwelling homes, motor vehicle theft, stealing and theft offences. 

Regional changes

The past two years have seen violent crime in outer Sydney West and North Sydney/Hornsby increase by more than 10%, while the Greater Sydney area and the Eastern Suburbs saw a decrease.

The 10-year-trend for almost all Greater Sydney and Regional NSW areas shows an increase in violent offences, with Illawarra, Northern Beaches, and Inner South Sydney the only geographical regions that are considered stable. Looking at all NSW areas, domestic violent-related assault, sexual assault, sexual touching, and stealing from a retail store have all increased in the last decade, indicating that victim protections, policing, or sentencing lengths could be inadequate. 

Blacktown and Eastern Suburbs in Greater Sydney indicate a decrease in the 2-year trend for property crimes. The only positive statistic is that every area in New South Wales shows a decrease in property offence trends in the 10 years (despite a jump in the last two years). 

Regional Comparisons

Baulkham Hills and Hawkesbury show a decrease in motor vehicle theft, with Blacktown showing a decrease in incidents of breaking and entering, stealing motor vehicle theft, and other stealing offences. 

However, the City and Inner South, Inner South West, Inner West, Northern Beaches, Outer South West, Ryde, and South West all show an increase in at least one offence. The areas of concern in Greater Sydney are City and Inner South, Inner South West and Ryde, which all have more than two areas of concern. For example, City and Inner South show an 18.2% increase in robbery, 23.8% in motor vehicle theft, and 16.2% in stealing motor vehicle offences. 

Regional NSW, Central West, Far West, Orana, Ravenna, and Southern Highlands all show a decrease in offences over the last two years. The only geographical areas of concern are the Capital Region, Murray, and Newcastle, which show a substantial increase in one major offence. 

Considering all geographical areas, the offences with the greatest frequency per 100,000 persons are stealing offences, malicious damage to property, domestic violence related assaults, and non-domestic violence-related assaults. The least common offences in New South Wales are murder, robbery, and sexual touching, sexual acts, and other sexual offences. 

Criminal Prosecutions

From September 2015 to September 2024, the 10-year trend showed a 1.8% increase in the rate of adults prosecuted by the NSW Police Force. 

The number of people being taken to court over allegations of breaching bail increased by almost 8% over the last 10 years. .  

At the same time, the 10-year trend showed a significant decrease in use of court diversion programs for adult defendants.

The latest 2-year trend for all 62 tracked criminal offence types shows an increase in arson and breaching an apprehended violence order. 

However, there has been a fall in adults being prosecuted for assault against police, possession and/or use of cocaine, ecstasy, and other drugs, and offensive conduct. In terms of drug possession, the fall is believed to be primarily due to the introduction, expansion and increase in utilisation of on-the-spot fines.

Youth Offending

The past  2-years have seen an increase in youth offending, especially for theft from a retail store and weapons offences. 

The spike in arrests could partially relate to the recent crackdown on youth crime 

Policing 

The ten years trend to September 2024 showed an increase in taser use,  but a decrease in move-on directions, searches and bail compliance checks. 

Domestic violent-related callouts increased across almost all geographical regions of Greater Sydney, especially in Baulkham Hills and Hawkesbury, City and Inner South, Northern Beaches, Ryde, and almost all areas of Regional NSW. 

In a Nutshell

So, in summary, the BOCSAR report provides the following important information:

1. The number of females prosecuted increased by 40%, compared to less than 20% for males. The most frequently-prosecuted offences were domestic violence-related assaults and stealing from retail stores. 
2. Theft from retail stores has increased by almost 40% over the last 20 years, despite a fall (for obvious reasons) during the Covid-19 pandemic. However, rate is still lower than five years ago. 
3. Violent offending has been increasing over the past 10 year.
4. Reports of sexual assault increased by 40% over the last five years, but this may be partly attributable to cultural shifts which have made it more acceptable to report.

The report is important as, among other things, it can be used to ensure resources are directed towards areas they are most required.