Turns Out the UK AUKUS Submarines Are Just as Unviable as the US Subs

Senator David Shoebridge confirmed with Australian Submarine Agency director general vice admiral Jonathan Mead during Senate estimates on 26 February 2025 that, according to an official United Kingdom report, it’s unviable that the UK Rolls Royce facility charged with the task will be able to produce the nuclear reactor cores to power the AUKUS class submarines slated for Australian ownership.

The UK Infrastructure and Projects Authority report dated 16 January 2025 states that, due to unresolvable “major issues”, the project is unachievable and needs to be reassessed. And despite Mead protesting that the report is based on March 2024 figures and billions have been invested into the operation since, the annual IPA report has come to the same conclusion for three years now.

The Greens senator further outlined that despite AUKUS Pillar I involving the UK production of five nuclear reactors to propel five AUKUS class nuclear-powered submarines (SSN) that are supposed to be purpose built for this nation, this plan is “unachievable”, yet our country just invested $AU289 million out of a slated $AU4.8 billion in funding to prop up the UK submarine manufacturing base.

This development is akin to the situation surrounding the provision of three second-hand Virginia class submarines from Washington, which has become increasingly unviable, and yet, despite the US provision of these boats having been questioned for some time now, our nation just handed Washington an AU$800 million initial payment on a slated AU$4.8 billion to prop up its base.

And despite US defence secretary Pete Hegseth confirming on 7 February 2025, that newly incumbent US president Donald Trump “is very aware and supportive of AUKUS”, when the US head of state was last week asked about “AUKUS” by a British journalist, he responded, “What does that mean?”

UK submarines “unachievable”

During his exchange with vice admirable Mead, Shoebridge set out that the UK Infrastructure and Projects Authority Annual Report 2023-24 delivered on 16 January, states that the “core production capability” project aims to manufacture “safe nuclear reactor cores” for the UK Royal Navy’s submarine program to produce “attack submarines delivered under the AUKUS agreement”.

The report further conveys that successful delivery of the nuclear reactors for the attack submarines “appears to be unachievable”, due to multiple issues, involving “project definition, schedule, budget, quality and/or benefits delivery, which at this stage do not appear to be manageable”.

Then PM Scott Morrison announced Australia’s participation in the AUKUS pact, with the US and the UK, in September 2021. The main thrust of the sell for the Australian public was that our nation would be acquiring three second-hand US Virginia class SSN and five jointly built UK AUKUS class SSN, which would be delivered over the 2030s through to 2050s for the tidy sum of AU$368 billion.

As has been clear from the beginning, although it’s often left unspoken, Australia’s acquisition of the eight nuclear powered submarines is in aid of our nation joining Washington in a war against Beijing, as these types of subs would allow Australian officers to creep right up to the Chinese mainland without being detected.

On confirming with Mead that he understood the data in the January report was sourced in March 2024, Shoebridge then asked the vice admiral, “Are you telling this committee and the Australian public that that was fixed between March and now?” And Mead replied that the UK had “given reassurances” that delivery would not be delayed, as the project deadlines aren’t until the 2030s.

The US can’t meet its own needs

Australian defence minister Richard Marles met with US defence secretary Hegseth at the Pentagon on 7 February, which was when the first downpayment to prop up the US submarine manufacturing base was provided, with a view to acquiring three second hand Virginia class SSN to be delivered over the 2030s, which comprised the AU$800 million from the total investment of AU$4.8 billion.

But in the current context this payment appears like Australia is securing US military protection in the Indo Pacific, as Washington’s delivery of three, possibly up to five, Virginia class SSN over the 2030s appears highly dubious, especially as the US legislation that underpins it permits the US president to simply renege on the supply of a submarine if the deal can’t be honoured at the time.

The reason the US may never deliver any SSN to Australia is that Washington needs to satisfy its own fleet requirement of 66 Virginia class subs, and right now, it requires an extra 17 to do so. This means that to meet both its domestic needs and the Australian requirements, the US must build 2.3 boats a year, yet its only producing 1.3 at present, and this year’s US budget covers just one sub being built.

But in terms of the US and Australia pursuing a war against China from this continent, Australia doesn’t really need any of its own submarines, as AUKUS Pillar I includes the establishment of joint Submarine Rotational Force-West at HMAS Stirling, off the coast of Boorloo-Perth in Western Australia, by 2027. This will involve four US SSN and one from the UK on permanent rotation.

So, while Australia has put down these first two investment payments out of close to half a billion dollars to be invested in both the US and the UK submarine manufacturing bases, it’s clear Australia may never own any SSN, and despite this, the taxpayer money currently being provided to prop up the industrial bases of our allies, will never be seen again.

Making Australia great again

The AUKUS pact arrangements were further dealt more uncertainty this week, as the Trump administration is now calling on this nation to up its defence spending, so instead of the 2 percent of gross domestic product it currently sits at, this amount should be upped to 3 percent of annual GDP, in preparation for the coming US-led war on China.

This would mean investing a further AU$56 billion on the military annually, which would cut significantly into other sectors, such as health, education and welfare. And local hawks agree, as Chinese warships have spent the last week conducting war games off the east coast of Australia, increased military spending is the way to go.

“Australia is currently well below the 3 percent level advocated for NATO, by NATO Secretary General Rutte, and Canberra faces a far more powerful challenge in China,” said Elbridge Colby, head of policy at the US Defence Department, in respect of how much our country should spend on its military.

The Trump administration official further added that while he supports the AUKUS pact, he still wants to see evidence that ensures the provision of three to five second-hand Virginia class SSN to Australia will not result in the depletion of his own nation’s SSN fleet requirements.